After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adju…

After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units.

    
Period Actual Period Actual 1 215 6 268 2 222 7 265 3 225 8 275 4 245 9 289 5 252 10

    

Use a=.5 and ß=.1, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

    
t Period      TAFt 6 7 8 9 10

a.

Obtain the linear trend equation for the following data on new checking accounts at Fair Savings Bank and use it to predict expected new checking accounts for periods 16 through 19. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

    
Period New Accounts Period New Accounts Period New Accounts 1 200 6       236 11 281 2 215 7       247 12 275 3 211 8       250 13 288 4 227 9       255 14 288 5 235 10       267 15 319

    
  Y = + t   Y16 =   Y17 =   Y18 =   Y19 =

    
b.

Use trend-adjusted smoothing with a = .2 and ß = .1 to smooth the new account data in part a. What is the forecast for period 16? Compute the initial trend estimate (Tt) for Period 5 as follows: (Period 4 data – Period 1 data) / 3. Then compute the initial trend-adjusted forecast (TAFt) for Period 5 as follows: Period 4 data + Initial trend estimate for Period 5. Then compute all remaining values (including the St value for Period 5) using the textbook formulas or Excel template. (Round the “Trend”values (Tt) to 3 decimal places and all other intermediate forecast values (TAFt and St) to 2 decimal places. Round your final answer to 2 decimal places.)

    

  Forecast for period 16

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